Museveni Succession: Is a peaceful transition possible? ELIAS BIRYABREMA INDEPENDENT Uganda has never had a peaceful transition where executive power is handed over peacefully. The first president, Sir Edward Mutesa, was shot out of Kampala in 1966 by his prime minister Milton Obote and army commander Idi Amin. He fled to exile, leaving his vast wealth and lands behind to lead a humble life in a council flat in London until he died in 1969. His successor Obote, was himself deposed militarily twice: first by his own commander Idi Amin in a January, 25, 1971 coup while he was attending the first Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (Chogm) in Singapore and then in June 1985 by a group of Acholi officers in the Uganda National Liberation Army, UNLF. Amin was himself toppled in April 1979 by the Tanzania Peoples Defence Forces, carrying Ugandan exile groups on their back, which installed Prof. Yusuf Lule as president. His reign lasted a mere two months, making history as the country’s shortest presidency to date. Lule was removed by the interim legislature, the National Consultative Council(NCC) of Edward Rugumayo and Omwony Ojwok which replaced him with Godfrey Binaisa, who barely managed one year before being overthrown in 1980. The chairman of the Military Commission, Paulo Muwanga, Obote’s number two in the UPC party, ruled for several months and organized the disputed December 1980 elections, which sparked off a bloody civil war lasting five years. In July 1985, Obote’s government that had been emasculated by the NRA insurgency collapsed as the Acholi officers (led by Tito Okello and Bazilio Okello) marched onto Kampala from their Gulu base where they had retreated to regroup after internal disagreements in the army. The Okellos entered the failed Nairobi peace talks and signed a power sharing agreement with the NRA in December 1985, an agreement that was never implemented. A month later, the NRA stormed Kampala and installed their commander (now retired General) Yoweri Museveni. He has now ruled for nearly half of the country’s independence time. In 1995, the new constitution was promulgated, limiting incumbency to two, five-year terms. Although Gen. Museveni had ruled for a decade, he was eligible to stand for presidency under the new constitution and he did in 1996, winning the country’s first direct presidential election. In 2001, he stood again for his last term under the constitution then, and was bound to step down in 2006. But in 2005, the constitution was amended and the term limits were removed. The only person under the sun, who could possibly benefit from the amendment then was Gen. Museveni, since he was the only one ever elected for two terms under that constitution. That would have been the first time for independent Uganda to see a peaceful transfer of power. It was not to be and Gen Museveni stood again in 2006 for another term that is supposed to end in 2011. Now that he is no longer barred by law from standing again and again, Gen. Museveni is likely to keep winning elections, reducing the chance of a constitutional transfer in the foreseeable future. It means then that the next president might access the office through the incapacitation of the incumbent, say, if his sight or other bodily function fails, making his execution of the presidency ineffective. The question then that arises is whether Uganda is capable of fielding a peaceful transfer that may not arise out of an election? While in theory, a vice president automatically assumes office of the president should the incumbent get incapacitated, the country has no proven experience of managing a peaceful transfer. Daily Monitor’s Elias Biryabarema set out to ask many people from the army, politics, intelligence services, the intelligentsia, business and other opinion leaders for their assessment of the country’s capacity to peacefully replace Mr Museveni if he gets incapacitated in office. In a six-part weekly series that will come out every Friday starting tomorrow, he brings you the different scenarios of what would happen in the event Mr Museveni is unable to continue performing the functions of President. ebiryabarema@monitor.co.ug